* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 07/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 43 50 54 56 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 27 35 43 50 54 56 50 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 16 13 10 12 11 15 18 18 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 1 9 4 2 0 0 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 25 16 3 356 2 358 21 22 52 45 64 65 39 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 156 154 152 151 148 144 142 135 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.6 -52.1 -52.9 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 81 81 81 82 81 81 79 79 80 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 9 10 13 15 16 18 15 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -40 -40 -38 -36 -19 -13 -21 -30 -25 -17 -1 8 200 MB DIV 29 32 50 79 89 139 99 88 34 65 40 33 33 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 613 612 616 619 623 631 628 622 621 636 698 684 685 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.9 100.6 101.2 101.9 102.5 103.8 105.1 106.5 107.9 109.3 110.7 112.2 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 54 52 51 47 41 46 40 19 15 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 14. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 30. 30. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 07/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)