* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 41 56 66 79 82 82 86 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 41 56 66 79 82 82 86 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 46 54 60 64 68 72 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 3 6 7 7 11 13 12 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 1 -4 -7 -7 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 346 360 15 13 59 45 350 163 147 104 105 90 73 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 157 152 147 144 142 135 133 126 115 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -52.6 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 75 75 76 71 72 71 70 67 61 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 11 12 13 15 16 20 21 21 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 11 6 4 12 2 17 33 53 57 68 70 200 MB DIV 19 12 16 18 50 95 84 113 62 46 27 14 -17 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 6 1 -1 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 794 807 834 866 899 934 972 1010 1084 1096 1141 1206 1271 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 36 34 40 39 34 30 33 22 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 15. 15. 19. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 16. 31. 41. 54. 57. 57. 61. 59. 58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)