* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 40 48 55 61 63 62 64 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 40 48 55 61 63 62 64 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 7 6 14 12 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 -9 SHEAR DIR 261 311 288 308 238 173 218 222 174 158 116 110 83 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.1 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 160 155 149 143 140 135 124 115 106 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 74 74 72 70 71 67 67 66 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 15 17 20 24 26 26 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 13 10 12 15 12 17 34 58 64 64 56 200 MB DIV 42 8 6 27 41 85 103 106 75 51 12 44 21 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 647 654 678 696 716 735 762 819 920 951 940 982 1021 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 43 41 36 36 44 47 32 22 15 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 15. 19. 22. 22. 24. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 15. 23. 30. 36. 38. 37. 39. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)