* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 62 73 79 82 83 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 51 62 73 79 82 83 82 84 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 57 62 66 68 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 10 10 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 3 -1 2 2 5 0 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 77 104 95 77 5 329 153 156 135 133 137 132 125 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 159 158 154 148 143 140 133 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -52.9 -53.7 -52.7 -53.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 70 70 68 70 68 68 67 65 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 15 17 19 20 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 15 10 5 11 9 15 14 32 41 53 52 200 MB DIV 57 42 40 38 24 55 81 77 98 120 19 13 8 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 0 1 0 4 -1 1 0 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 676 713 755 759 770 787 840 859 912 947 1009 992 1013 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 15.0 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 95.3 96.4 97.6 98.8 101.4 104.2 106.8 109.0 111.0 112.6 114.4 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 12 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 28 35 38 36 50 40 31 28 14 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 26. 37. 48. 54. 57. 58. 57. 59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)