* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972012 07/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 61 72 75 78 81 80 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 54 61 72 75 78 81 80 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 53 57 60 62 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 6 4 4 1 5 7 12 12 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 -3 -4 -10 -5 SHEAR DIR 64 77 96 84 77 339 268 180 192 157 135 153 127 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 157 159 156 150 144 140 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 71 71 71 68 67 64 63 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 14 15 18 20 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 15 13 8 11 14 13 15 26 46 63 67 200 MB DIV 60 58 43 40 37 27 82 90 84 99 65 4 9 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 658 688 731 752 753 750 783 782 826 893 1020 1047 1140 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.5 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.6 95.7 96.8 97.9 100.2 102.9 105.6 108.2 110.6 112.8 115.1 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 20 23 30 40 35 48 46 30 27 13 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 11. 14. 18. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 29. 36. 47. 50. 53. 56. 55. 58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972012 INVEST 07/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)