* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942012 06/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 58 63 66 65 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 50 58 63 55 39 32 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 60 57 40 32 30 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 6 1 15 11 15 6 10 12 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 9 -1 2 -8 -6 -3 -1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 82 120 137 121 201 84 57 81 124 112 108 110 112 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 164 163 162 164 161 158 158 158 158 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 78 76 78 80 82 81 83 81 79 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 12 12 14 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 30 15 12 18 23 25 35 39 30 60 85 200 MB DIV 96 105 101 96 113 128 121 97 95 103 79 96 120 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 4 -4 -4 -1 -1 2 5 21 19 LAND (KM) 575 558 541 496 455 408 267 124 -23 -53 -18 -15 13 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 6 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 24 27 26 25 34 46 50 47 15 46 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 392 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 28. 33. 36. 35. 34. 34. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942012 INVEST 06/13/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##