* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/14/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 30 28 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 30 28 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 33 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 8 11 15 27 27 28 26 23 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 4 5 5 0 1 4 -3 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 184 218 162 198 218 272 279 276 268 266 267 285 286 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 159 156 152 149 144 138 134 132 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 64 62 67 61 60 56 53 50 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 35 31 31 26 8 -7 -24 -23 -21 -24 -19 200 MB DIV 22 31 39 27 12 22 -1 -6 -30 -52 -37 -24 -30 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 963 974 993 1025 1061 1121 1221 1320 1358 1389 1408 1432 1449 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 1 3 3 3 0 0 1 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##