* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/14/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 21 22 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 21 22 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 1 9 11 16 20 30 31 23 22 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 5 6 7 3 -3 1 1 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 182 194 232 170 196 240 268 280 277 266 264 291 287 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 158 155 151 147 147 144 141 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 65 65 63 59 61 58 55 53 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 14 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 32 32 26 32 15 1 -11 -9 -5 -17 -10 200 MB DIV 42 38 41 29 25 13 17 -4 -5 -21 -38 -50 -37 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 3 1 2 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 967 964 968 985 1006 1068 1134 1233 1344 1407 1453 1500 1534 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 7 7 8 7 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 0 2 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -3. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##