* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/12/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 39 38 38 33 28 23 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 39 38 38 33 28 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 9 7 7 12 19 16 26 31 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 2 4 4 7 3 0 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 134 129 154 164 138 191 205 223 228 239 251 245 246 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 156 156 152 148 142 137 131 125 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 62 64 63 64 63 64 57 50 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 11 15 13 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 27 28 30 31 39 30 28 16 19 15 16 200 MB DIV 90 68 75 53 48 46 27 29 29 20 -3 -15 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 1 6 2 2 1 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 939 930 921 926 933 949 985 1003 1036 1073 1079 1057 1080 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.5 105.7 106.1 106.5 107.4 108.7 109.8 111.3 112.7 114.1 115.1 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 2 0 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 13. 13. 8. 3. -2. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##