* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 54 60 59 55 49 45 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 49 54 60 59 55 49 45 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 36 33 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 16 11 7 13 13 14 20 26 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -4 -2 1 2 2 4 2 3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 129 128 124 136 118 83 215 194 230 204 218 240 254 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 156 156 154 152 147 138 130 120 111 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -51.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 62 61 60 62 64 62 61 57 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 20 28 31 33 29 27 22 22 12 29 18 200 MB DIV 79 76 79 94 81 67 27 54 65 58 18 5 -16 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 1 3 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 947 939 931 943 955 987 1007 1012 999 956 920 848 770 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.5 11.0 11.7 13.0 14.3 15.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.5 105.7 106.0 106.3 107.2 108.1 109.0 109.9 111.0 111.8 112.7 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 3 4 4 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 29. 35. 34. 30. 24. 20. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##