* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 51 57 62 60 57 57 53 47 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 51 57 62 60 57 57 53 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 38 42 43 43 40 36 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 16 17 8 9 11 12 18 19 21 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -8 -5 -6 2 2 3 3 1 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 75 112 122 118 126 97 185 207 199 233 210 252 259 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 156 156 155 155 152 149 145 142 138 131 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 64 61 61 60 59 61 61 58 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 13 13 15 14 14 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 10 20 29 39 38 33 34 35 20 13 15 200 MB DIV 123 83 78 84 91 69 29 45 56 67 21 1 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 1 3 4 1 1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1014 995 970 962 955 963 997 1040 1076 1108 1148 1182 1150 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.3 105.6 106.0 106.3 107.1 108.1 109.3 110.4 111.6 112.8 114.1 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 3 3 3 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 10. 13. 11. 11. 14. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 26. 32. 37. 35. 32. 32. 28. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/12/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##