* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 43 49 51 50 47 47 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 43 49 51 50 47 47 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 37 35 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 13 14 18 12 18 9 19 24 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -2 4 0 4 2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 77 76 114 119 134 143 131 212 188 196 193 195 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 156 156 155 155 152 151 148 144 137 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 65 63 57 60 64 60 58 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 13 14 15 14 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 6 8 17 26 37 34 26 28 28 29 30 200 MB DIV 150 134 146 128 93 93 63 74 56 79 12 14 14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1015 988 956 940 926 928 929 933 948 971 984 985 1033 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.1 105.5 105.8 106.1 106.6 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.2 110.4 111.5 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 2 3 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 26. 26. 22. 22. 20. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/11/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##