* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 44 51 53 52 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 44 51 53 52 51 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 4 5 15 15 19 17 21 18 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 -2 -3 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 95 85 100 129 144 126 144 182 180 173 192 175 191 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 156 155 154 153 153 152 152 151 149 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 66 67 65 63 61 59 56 55 56 55 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 9 8 11 12 15 16 15 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 12 10 10 18 34 49 57 57 54 52 40 200 MB DIV 142 152 142 155 132 95 81 80 57 33 24 16 26 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1040 1032 1016 1013 1012 1034 1083 1126 1188 1256 1315 1355 1344 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.5 10.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.9 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.6 112.4 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 2 1 0 2 4 5 6 7 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 24. 31. 33. 32. 31. 33. 33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/11/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##