* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 45 48 48 46 46 50 54 58 66 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 41 45 48 48 43 43 47 51 55 63 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 39 42 40 41 45 51 59 70 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 14 8 7 1 5 11 9 10 7 3 4 7 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 0 0 -4 -4 0 -2 1 0 -4 -4 -6 -4 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 257 269 285 294 16 278 279 289 257 247 271 268 290 262 289 270 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 144 144 146 144 140 138 140 134 139 140 137 134 138 138 140 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 74 67 60 58 55 53 50 46 45 45 45 45 43 46 45 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 22 20 18 18 20 21 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 109 119 114 93 95 101 120 104 91 68 58 31 25 16 6 8 -7 200 MB DIV 112 145 112 81 47 60 61 22 -5 -6 8 -14 -7 0 -15 8 10 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 1 6 2 2 3 -3 0 -2 -6 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1608 1512 1417 1332 1247 1028 781 496 209 7 40 75 171 421 609 852 1185 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 13 11 9 10 14 13 10 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 16 18 21 13 11 9 11 6 16 15 9 10 14 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 23. 22. 23. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 18. 16. 16. 20. 24. 28. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 140.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.38 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -12.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 8.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 10.0% SDCON: 0.5% 7.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 5.1% 1.5% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##