* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 40 43 46 48 49 51 52 51 53 55 58 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 40 43 46 48 49 51 50 50 52 53 57 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 44 49 55 57 61 66 74 80 85 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 14 10 8 9 4 4 6 10 8 12 5 3 1 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -2 3 -2 -2 0 -1 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 249 201 247 243 287 303 102 277 310 275 283 257 218 162 258 7 305 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.6 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 139 139 136 139 139 137 141 137 138 140 138 134 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 66 58 54 49 48 40 40 41 39 39 41 44 45 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 19 20 20 22 21 20 20 20 20 19 18 20 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 89 114 121 124 110 107 118 126 107 83 55 44 28 24 6 6 -6 200 MB DIV 96 119 133 108 63 53 56 25 -3 0 -19 -14 -1 -12 6 -12 6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -1 1 -3 2 1 6 3 3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1705 1630 1555 1442 1329 1100 827 535 281 58 112 151 131 243 443 670 903 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 10 10 12 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 13 8 7 13 12 9 14 7 11 19 13 8 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 22. 21. 23. 25. 28. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 139.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.67 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.12 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.53 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 8.0% SDCON: 0.5% 6.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##