* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 24 24 30 26 24 31 35 30 23 14 9 17 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 4 2 0 1 7 5 5 4 0 0 0 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 278 255 254 261 271 285 288 268 272 269 277 278 301 267 302 285 293 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.4 26.8 25.9 26.1 25.5 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.1 25.7 25.7 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 142 137 136 131 122 125 119 117 120 124 125 121 121 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -51.2 -50.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 69 64 57 51 46 46 40 40 43 48 48 46 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 88 99 97 96 106 103 87 53 32 26 20 0 1 -6 -7 -13 200 MB DIV 93 72 110 129 125 51 66 73 35 -7 -7 -6 -9 5 -6 6 3 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -6 0 2 -5 1 -13 -12 -13 -1 -3 4 1 -5 3 3 LAND (KM) 1902 1847 1793 1745 1698 1592 1433 1234 1026 838 681 555 464 417 355 455 675 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 15 9 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 13. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 137.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.68 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 1.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.75 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##