* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/11/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 39 46 51 58 63 62 62 61 59 55 54 54 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 39 46 51 58 63 62 62 61 59 49 53 54 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 41 45 44 42 42 43 42 35 37 38 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 6 6 11 5 3 6 8 18 12 14 9 14 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 2 -1 -1 -2 2 -3 -6 -3 -5 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 10 354 28 18 7 308 318 90 250 243 254 256 273 259 235 243 255 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 156 156 151 144 137 133 133 135 137 135 138 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 81 78 67 62 55 47 43 40 42 44 46 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 18 20 20 23 23 20 21 22 21 19 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 78 97 108 104 108 101 98 88 77 67 48 50 52 51 47 200 MB DIV 107 115 146 161 164 125 69 78 49 0 -10 12 -23 -3 -17 -2 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -4 0 1 1 4 5 7 -1 3 2 7 1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1754 1712 1678 1644 1607 1503 1355 1143 880 598 324 86 -13 152 269 319 310 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.9 14.2 15.8 17.3 18.4 19.1 19.4 19.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.2 141.3 141.3 141.4 141.8 142.6 144.2 146.5 149.1 151.7 154.0 155.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 8 7 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 15 17 22 26 16 10 6 6 9 8 3 14 21 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 7. 11. 14. 12. 13. 13. 12. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -9. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 21. 26. 33. 38. 37. 37. 36. 34. 30. 29. 29. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 141.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 138.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.84 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 4.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 12.5% 4.2% 2.6% 0.4% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 24.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% 16.0% 26.0% SDCON: 0.7% 14.4% 4.8% 0.9% 0.1% 4.2% 8.2% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##