* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/11/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 53 60 67 71 73 71 70 68 65 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 53 60 67 71 73 71 70 68 65 65 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 44 49 53 55 56 57 56 53 52 52 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 7 4 7 1 2 6 7 13 16 12 9 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 4 3 -2 -3 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 44 5 352 70 9 295 316 110 151 252 255 258 253 270 247 270 260 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 157 157 153 149 145 141 137 132 139 136 133 137 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 83 82 73 63 54 46 40 38 39 44 48 49 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 17 20 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 21 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 90 76 67 82 103 103 121 116 117 92 81 67 57 38 28 22 9 200 MB DIV 108 103 105 128 135 137 103 41 48 27 -9 5 -11 -31 -21 -30 0 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 1 1 0 2 2 2 5 6 8 6 2 9 5 2 LAND (KM) 1791 1779 1745 1709 1672 1585 1451 1267 1025 757 486 250 98 29 66 97 79 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.5 14.9 16.3 17.5 18.3 18.9 18.9 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.8 140.8 140.9 140.9 141.0 141.3 142.0 143.3 145.3 147.7 150.2 152.5 154.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 6 5 7 8 11 11 13 11 9 7 5 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 16 19 26 23 17 13 10 6 13 8 7 14 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 16. 15. 13. 9. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 28. 35. 42. 46. 48. 46. 45. 43. 40. 40. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 140.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -2.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 13.9% 4.3% 2.6% 0.5% 8.1% 6.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 2.7% 2.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##