* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/11/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 49 59 68 78 80 79 77 75 73 73 77 79 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 49 59 68 78 80 79 77 73 71 72 75 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 38 42 45 47 48 48 47 46 48 53 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 10 9 5 3 2 4 6 11 13 8 9 5 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -5 -4 -9 SHEAR DIR 78 66 31 11 4 336 259 324 113 247 254 271 275 245 234 244 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.5 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 158 158 154 148 140 135 137 135 138 136 136 139 138 133 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 84 86 86 85 84 76 65 56 47 38 35 36 38 42 45 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 16 18 21 24 26 29 29 28 28 26 24 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 91 89 80 75 93 110 117 114 116 101 92 80 69 54 32 37 21 200 MB DIV 105 112 110 109 144 150 102 53 58 4 -12 -1 23 -15 -14 -16 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 1 0 1 1 3 0 5 4 11 6 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1820 1822 1819 1788 1738 1653 1507 1297 1036 720 390 104 25 169 163 82 162 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.9 13.3 15.0 16.6 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.7 140.6 140.5 140.5 140.6 140.7 141.4 142.9 145.1 148.0 151.1 153.9 156.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 7 8 10 12 13 15 15 12 8 6 8 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 19 18 25 23 10 7 9 7 8 6 11 17 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 24. 22. 20. 16. 12. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 29. 39. 48. 58. 60. 59. 57. 55. 53. 53. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 140.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.13 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 14.9% 3.9% 2.0% 0.9% 9.9% 20.0% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 3.4% 6.8% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 10.0% 16.0% SDCON: 0.1% 7.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3.7% 8.4% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/11/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##