* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/10/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 41 54 68 78 86 85 84 83 81 78 78 80 84 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 41 54 68 78 86 85 84 83 81 72 72 74 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 25 28 35 43 52 59 62 62 61 60 56 59 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 9 9 4 2 3 3 9 14 13 15 8 5 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 -3 3 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 87 67 35 6 27 44 17 151 204 246 255 262 276 290 245 226 288 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.5 27.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.7 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 157 157 157 149 143 132 132 132 136 135 136 140 139 137 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 85 86 84 82 80 74 63 53 43 36 34 35 37 40 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 14 16 19 21 25 27 28 27 27 27 27 24 24 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 83 86 87 80 87 108 118 131 130 130 96 84 73 65 57 52 33 200 MB DIV 113 90 101 110 127 165 133 75 65 34 -7 -13 0 -11 -15 -2 -17 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 3 1 7 2 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 1786 1786 1771 1758 1727 1666 1566 1422 1231 967 637 296 10 131 200 155 162 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.3 12.5 14.1 15.9 17.5 18.9 19.7 20.0 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.0 141.1 141.1 141.1 141.0 141.2 141.9 143.3 145.6 148.7 152.0 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 3 5 6 9 10 12 14 16 15 13 9 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 15 20 24 12 5 6 5 8 3 9 18 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. 36. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 20. 25. 24. 23. 21. 18. 14. 12. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 34. 48. 58. 66. 65. 64. 63. 61. 58. 58. 60. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 141.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.35 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 36.6% 12.3% 7.3% 4.4% 22.4% 45.1% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% Consensus: 1.2% 13.4% 4.9% 2.6% 1.5% 7.9% 15.6% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##