* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/10/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 39 50 63 77 89 92 90 85 82 79 77 78 78 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 39 50 63 77 89 92 90 85 82 79 77 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 33 42 53 65 72 71 66 61 59 59 63 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 11 10 13 8 7 8 5 10 15 18 12 6 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 1 4 0 4 0 0 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 105 56 86 69 51 30 47 29 65 342 248 248 250 262 238 271 260 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.3 26.3 25.3 26.2 27.0 27.2 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 157 157 159 157 152 144 138 128 118 126 133 135 133 129 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 81 82 80 80 75 66 56 46 41 39 39 43 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 19 23 27 30 32 32 31 31 30 29 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 72 80 80 81 94 91 111 134 140 133 135 109 101 93 83 72 62 200 MB DIV 161 151 121 113 98 119 141 133 104 81 52 20 3 -18 -28 -35 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 0 2 2 3 6 4 4 -4 2 LAND (KM) 1762 1738 1727 1718 1711 1679 1634 1576 1487 1341 1141 873 608 380 219 147 137 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 11.2 12.4 13.9 15.8 17.7 19.3 20.6 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.4 141.6 141.7 141.7 141.7 141.4 141.2 141.3 142.2 143.9 146.5 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 5 7 9 10 11 13 14 12 9 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 17 17 17 15 17 26 15 10 2 0 1 8 10 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 29. 31. 30. 27. 24. 21. 18. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 30. 43. 57. 69. 72. 70. 65. 62. 59. 57. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 141.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.80 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.02 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 13.3% 3.3% 2.0% 0.9% 6.1% 37.6% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 2.0% 12.5% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##