* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 31 38 45 59 74 86 93 96 92 87 80 75 70 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 25 31 38 45 59 74 86 93 96 92 87 80 75 70 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 23 26 29 38 49 62 73 79 77 70 61 54 51 51 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 11 13 12 10 9 11 6 4 19 21 19 12 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -1 3 4 4 3 1 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 76 64 75 50 43 15 42 62 60 47 288 238 240 248 238 218 220 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.2 27.5 26.2 25.5 25.2 26.1 27.1 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 156 155 159 158 157 147 139 126 120 116 125 134 130 131 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 0.8 1.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 81 81 81 81 78 72 63 55 45 38 38 40 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 16 20 24 27 29 31 30 30 28 26 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 62 74 81 85 91 97 108 125 126 122 112 84 72 75 66 51 26 200 MB DIV 114 158 174 154 145 139 148 129 132 102 57 0 11 -15 0 -15 -13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 5 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1768 1733 1720 1726 1717 1714 1678 1615 1542 1472 1350 1136 848 581 368 259 231 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 10.4 11.5 13.3 15.4 17.4 19.4 21.0 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.6 141.9 142.0 142.1 141.9 141.5 141.1 140.9 141.0 141.9 144.0 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 1 0 4 8 10 11 11 11 14 14 12 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 15 14 14 16 15 26 20 10 1 0 0 1 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 6. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. 37. 37. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 28. 26. 21. 17. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 5. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 39. 54. 66. 73. 76. 72. 67. 60. 55. 50. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 141.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.89 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 29.2% 10.2% 6.0% 3.6% 12.3% 51.5% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 9.4% Consensus: 1.0% 10.6% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 4.2% 17.3% 8.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 9.0% SDCON: 1.0% 9.8% 2.9% 1.0% 0.6% 3.1% 12.6% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##