* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/09/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 69 85 92 92 87 82 77 70 67 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 44 56 69 85 92 92 87 82 77 70 67 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 26 31 38 45 55 64 67 61 54 47 41 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 14 17 16 16 9 7 6 4 17 30 28 18 13 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 8 9 10 5 3 3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 109 80 52 55 45 27 14 35 7 65 246 235 237 259 275 263 288 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 27.7 26.4 25.1 24.6 24.9 25.7 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 158 158 158 159 159 157 143 129 115 110 113 121 125 124 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 81 82 82 85 83 83 77 68 64 52 42 37 38 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 16 20 22 28 30 30 28 29 27 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 64 74 78 95 96 104 119 113 103 77 65 54 52 43 28 200 MB DIV 62 94 126 153 137 161 168 166 149 122 79 47 12 -5 -21 -20 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 5 -4 4 0 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 1769 1724 1696 1702 1724 1771 1792 1770 1707 1654 1616 1509 1279 1025 783 558 374 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.5 9.1 8.8 9.4 10.9 13.2 16.0 18.9 21.1 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.1 142.6 142.8 142.9 142.6 141.8 140.9 140.2 139.6 139.4 140.4 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 3 7 10 13 14 14 12 14 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 13 16 17 17 16 25 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 27. 34. 39. 42. 43. 42. 41. 39. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 27. 30. 29. 25. 23. 20. 15. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 36. 49. 65. 72. 72. 67. 62. 57. 50. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 141.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/09/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.20 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.6% 23.1% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% Consensus: 0.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 7.7% 11.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 4.8% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/09/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##