* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932026 08/09/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 48 63 76 92 98 96 91 87 81 79 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 48 63 76 92 98 96 91 87 81 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 42 51 64 74 77 71 62 56 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 15 17 18 19 15 7 7 8 7 22 24 25 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 -7 -2 0 -3 3 0 8 3 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 136 115 81 73 55 51 35 23 50 6 29 260 247 243 242 240 240 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.4 27.5 26.1 25.6 25.1 26.3 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 158 156 158 159 160 149 141 126 121 115 126 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -50.6 -50.9 -49.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 82 82 84 86 85 84 80 70 61 49 45 40 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 12 16 21 24 31 34 34 33 33 30 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 45 59 70 83 88 89 127 112 94 101 82 88 85 84 64 200 MB DIV 102 54 84 116 149 113 139 190 163 144 120 79 59 51 -11 -22 -25 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 7 6 10 1 6 7 LAND (KM) 1848 1778 1724 1712 1709 1747 1779 1789 1770 1688 1585 1413 1145 844 589 443 384 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.4 8.9 8.9 9.8 11.5 13.8 16.6 19.4 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.4 142.1 142.5 142.8 142.8 142.4 141.5 140.5 140.1 140.1 141.3 143.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 2 4 9 11 13 15 14 15 13 9 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 13 14 16 17 15 18 21 10 0 0 0 2 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 26. 34. 39. 43. 45. 46. 46. 44. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 22. 32. 34. 32. 28. 25. 20. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 28. 43. 56. 72. 78. 76. 71. 67. 61. 59. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.1 140.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932026 INVEST 08/09/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.66 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 18.6% 26.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 6.2% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932026 INVEST 08/09/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##