* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 24 22 24 23 21 19 17 18 20 23 26 27 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 24 22 24 23 21 19 17 18 20 23 26 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 13 18 22 24 23 24 26 24 22 24 19 16 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 5 7 -1 -3 -2 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 186 205 203 207 218 216 224 239 239 244 243 257 259 283 261 284 289 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 141 141 143 147 149 150 150 149 150 151 151 152 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 58 54 51 49 53 59 58 62 65 71 73 73 73 73 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 48 41 31 32 42 30 18 11 11 21 13 21 27 23 33 200 MB DIV 40 35 38 33 -4 -44 -48 -24 -27 3 -2 13 -6 13 0 7 -8 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 -7 -12 -6 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1078 1074 1077 1091 1125 1255 1433 1603 1769 1909 2009 2076 2126 2168 2219 2250 2284 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.3 166.9 167.4 168.0 168.6 170.2 172.3 174.4 176.3 177.9 179.1 179.9 180.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 9 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 32 34 33 38 36 37 40 43 42 40 35 31 32 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 31. 32. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 166.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.76 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -17.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.02 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.3% 3.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##