* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/17/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 24 22 23 23 21 19 17 18 20 23 26 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 24 22 23 23 21 19 17 18 20 23 26 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 8 11 15 20 22 21 24 21 22 17 18 9 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 2 6 4 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 190 180 191 204 218 219 215 235 232 242 242 258 260 269 281 265 288 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 142 142 140 142 143 147 147 149 147 149 150 151 152 152 153 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 55 51 51 56 59 59 64 67 72 73 74 70 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 55 56 53 47 42 34 43 42 27 17 5 17 13 20 15 17 12 200 MB DIV 57 47 41 49 19 -37 -31 -20 -21 -17 12 7 -12 -29 -11 -16 -14 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 4 -4 -8 -3 3 -1 3 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1114 1115 1119 1118 1130 1217 1359 1528 1700 1853 1990 2100 2181 2266 2356 2454 2572 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.8 166.3 166.8 167.4 167.9 169.2 171.1 173.2 175.3 177.1 178.7 179.9 180.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 5 8 10 11 10 9 7 6 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 31 33 32 33 33 35 36 42 43 40 36 32 33 44 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 33. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 165.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.67 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4.9% 4.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 2.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##