* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/17/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 22 21 20 17 16 17 19 21 25 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 23 22 21 20 17 16 17 19 21 25 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 9 11 16 20 25 25 26 20 23 22 23 15 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 6 0 -1 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 206 213 206 202 218 236 227 233 230 240 241 245 269 284 290 261 257 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 141 140 143 147 148 149 148 148 152 153 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 60 56 49 50 55 56 59 61 66 68 67 71 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 50 46 41 24 21 31 23 12 -2 -1 3 0 11 14 27 200 MB DIV 23 34 33 17 29 -8 -24 -43 -20 -11 2 -6 2 -17 -10 -15 -19 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 0 4 -8 -7 1 0 1 0 -2 -4 -9 -3 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 1096 1089 1081 1076 1084 1134 1263 1445 1633 1812 1966 2089 2220 2362 2517 2679 2869 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.3 165.7 166.2 166.8 167.5 168.8 170.5 172.6 174.8 176.8 178.5 179.8 181.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 9 11 10 9 8 6 6 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 30 34 32 32 37 36 35 41 43 40 35 39 42 39 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 34. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -0. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 165.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.59 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/17/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##