* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 16 16 22 26 27 25 24 26 27 28 22 25 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 220 222 225 228 232 239 240 251 249 247 239 254 256 275 283 280 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 141 141 145 147 147 148 148 148 148 148 150 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 56 49 51 51 59 59 66 67 69 66 68 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 55 53 47 27 9 12 10 -4 -3 -21 -9 -15 3 12 26 200 MB DIV 10 22 26 29 32 1 -21 -47 -13 1 0 -1 -10 -16 -1 -20 -36 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 -3 -1 -1 -11 -6 1 1 -4 -3 -5 -8 -10 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1022 987 966 963 983 1047 1157 1316 1488 1641 1752 1838 1924 2016 2128 2264 2416 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.4 165.8 166.4 167.2 168.7 170.2 172.0 173.9 175.6 176.8 177.7 178.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 4 4 5 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 31 29 29 36 34 34 32 29 32 35 39 40 39 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 29. 31. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -12. -8. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 165.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.87 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##