* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 20 21 18 23 24 27 18 21 15 21 17 21 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 2 0 4 -1 0 -1 -5 4 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 227 230 227 227 234 237 246 246 261 256 258 264 253 251 272 269 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 140 140 143 146 147 150 149 150 152 153 153 153 153 155 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 52 53 53 51 51 53 58 59 64 65 69 67 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 66 61 58 36 16 4 6 -2 -6 -3 -11 3 2 22 23 200 MB DIV 14 7 18 21 26 24 -30 -37 -6 -8 -7 -7 -34 -18 -26 3 -14 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 0 -1 4 -7 -11 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1115 1105 1099 1107 1126 1212 1339 1504 1721 1916 2078 2224 2338 2454 2587 2732 2874 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.3 167.1 167.6 168.1 168.7 170.2 171.8 173.7 176.0 178.1 179.8 181.3 182.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 9 8 6 6 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 32 32 32 37 37 33 38 41 40 32 27 42 45 38 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. -13. -10. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -12. -9. -6. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 166.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.31 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.22 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##