* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 17 16 17 19 21 24 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 17 16 17 19 21 24 24 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 18 20 21 26 25 26 22 22 22 26 28 24 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 5 1 -3 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 231 234 231 232 241 249 254 244 255 247 249 232 235 244 259 259 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 140 140 140 141 145 147 149 147 147 148 149 151 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 57 54 58 54 54 53 58 61 64 66 69 65 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 59 48 47 41 46 42 22 5 -2 -6 -11 -11 -22 -4 -8 15 13 200 MB DIV 20 16 19 18 12 13 -30 -39 -29 -10 4 4 -8 -32 -15 -7 -4 700-850 TADV 3 6 4 2 -1 -1 -2 -7 -7 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -6 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1121 1057 1006 977 973 1016 1098 1228 1405 1590 1747 1864 1957 2069 2191 2335 2477 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.5 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.1 165.4 165.7 166.3 167.8 169.4 171.1 173.1 175.1 176.8 178.0 178.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 9 7 5 4 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 32 28 29 29 28 31 33 31 27 31 32 35 31 31 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 30. 32. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. -1. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 165.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.77 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.07 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.9% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 4.8% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 4.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##