* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 31 29 28 28 29 32 36 40 42 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 31 31 29 28 28 29 32 36 40 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 10 11 17 18 24 26 25 18 16 17 15 16 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 62 122 165 187 210 235 249 249 249 248 261 252 274 251 235 240 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 145 142 141 141 140 141 146 148 149 147 151 153 154 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 64 63 63 61 55 52 52 56 55 58 59 63 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 53 47 48 38 28 26 33 26 0 -2 -2 -13 -13 -7 4 8 21 200 MB DIV 20 22 8 17 3 25 10 -1 -49 -86 -24 -16 -10 -19 -20 -20 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 3 2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -9 1 -1 -7 -6 -6 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1281 1223 1160 1104 1042 978 999 1070 1200 1391 1611 1828 2040 2257 2481 2709 2905 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 164.7 164.3 164.0 163.9 163.9 164.7 166.3 168.1 170.0 172.3 174.7 177.0 179.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 7 10 9 10 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 38 34 33 27 28 30 29 33 37 33 40 41 39 37 49 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 164.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 11.8% 3.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 10.5% 5.6% 0.6% 0.2% 5.9% 5.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 6.2% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% 3.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##