* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 36 40 44 47 45 43 42 43 44 46 49 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 36 40 44 47 45 43 42 43 44 46 49 54 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 29 27 25 22 21 19 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 9 7 6 8 8 11 16 17 19 17 18 14 12 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 -3 -3 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -5 -3 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 144 73 117 134 164 215 234 238 257 245 241 225 220 206 193 194 217 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 147 144 144 144 145 145 147 149 151 154 156 158 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 66 64 64 60 54 57 60 58 58 57 55 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 56 60 51 37 34 36 32 33 38 28 31 20 15 16 33 200 MB DIV 76 57 52 59 44 23 17 17 -13 -33 -36 -12 -22 0 -4 0 -5 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 2 1 -1 0 -9 -7 -4 0 -6 -3 -3 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1347 1320 1273 1223 1168 1090 1072 1100 1209 1390 1627 1909 2199 2505 2806 2759 2459 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.6 13.1 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.3 164.9 164.5 164.1 163.8 163.8 164.6 166.2 168.1 170.6 173.4 176.5 179.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 6 9 11 13 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 44 38 36 32 31 33 34 34 36 33 43 47 52 58 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 20. 18. 17. 18. 19. 21. 24. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 165.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.7% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.4% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 29.9% 11.8% 7.7% 1.9% 8.3% 4.3% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 1.7% 18.5% 10.4% 2.7% 0.7% 9.7% 7.8% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.8% 11.2% 6.2% 1.3% 0.3% 5.3% 4.9% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##