* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/15/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 49 54 58 59 57 58 61 61 65 67 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 49 54 58 59 57 58 61 61 65 67 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 39 39 39 40 41 41 42 45 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 11 9 5 8 6 8 14 7 11 11 8 8 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -6 -5 -5 2 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 -6 0 -3 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 160 63 67 113 140 161 218 224 244 266 218 217 195 212 134 136 69 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 151 148 144 146 146 146 147 148 150 150 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 69 67 64 63 64 60 56 59 60 59 60 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 17 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 60 63 64 49 36 39 45 46 54 59 54 59 62 58 65 200 MB DIV 79 75 70 80 87 41 24 11 11 -14 -13 11 10 22 5 4 13 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 0 3 -1 0 -2 -6 -5 1 0 -1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1369 1351 1324 1287 1231 1145 1094 1111 1170 1310 1506 1736 1984 2213 2429 2629 2822 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.8 165.4 165.0 164.6 164.1 163.7 163.9 165.0 166.6 168.8 171.4 174.2 177.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 6 9 12 14 14 12 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 52 53 49 40 35 38 35 34 39 42 42 44 43 47 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 45. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 6. 8. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 24. 29. 33. 34. 32. 33. 36. 36. 40. 42. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 165.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 56.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.52 3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 36.9% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 28.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 23.4% 8.9% 5.6% 2.3% 8.2% 13.1% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% Consensus: 1.4% 20.8% 12.4% 2.0% 0.9% 11.5% 14.3% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 13.4% 7.7% 1.0% 0.4% 6.7% 7.6% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##