* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 35 40 48 56 61 65 64 61 59 58 57 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 35 40 48 56 61 65 64 61 59 58 57 57 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 47 46 43 40 38 37 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 7 11 6 4 5 7 9 11 10 12 10 7 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -3 0 1 -1 -3 4 3 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 167 189 56 77 124 164 138 183 160 217 221 225 207 192 194 184 127 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 149 144 143 144 144 144 145 142 146 147 148 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 70 68 66 64 63 59 55 55 61 62 61 59 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 54 58 62 66 58 41 37 39 46 48 61 56 59 58 63 67 200 MB DIV 67 63 62 62 61 72 44 49 55 31 -49 -21 13 2 4 5 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 -1 1 2 0 0 -1 2 0 0 -6 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1388 1369 1355 1328 1291 1192 1100 1079 1088 1172 1284 1424 1601 1803 1999 2189 2375 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.7 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.2 165.8 165.5 165.1 164.7 164.0 163.8 164.3 165.5 167.2 169.3 171.4 173.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 7 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 45 51 54 46 37 32 34 33 36 34 32 31 33 41 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 39. 40. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 23. 31. 36. 40. 39. 36. 34. 33. 32. 32. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 166.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.51 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 26.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 29.6% 11.1% 7.0% 2.0% 8.8% 5.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% Consensus: 1.8% 18.9% 10.8% 2.5% 0.7% 11.0% 10.9% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 25.0% SDCON: 0.9% 13.4% 6.9% 1.2% 0.3% 7.0% 6.9% 13.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##