* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/14/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 44 52 60 66 69 68 68 67 65 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 44 52 60 66 69 68 68 67 65 63 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 46 50 51 51 49 47 45 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 8 10 11 5 6 5 7 6 6 10 11 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 2 0 -1 1 4 0 -4 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 4 356 38 69 87 131 157 145 161 176 240 227 226 184 210 194 193 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 153 153 149 145 147 145 145 144 145 145 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 73 72 68 68 65 62 58 56 62 64 65 64 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 39 42 50 52 53 61 47 41 42 46 56 72 72 75 67 75 74 200 MB DIV 39 45 34 40 41 71 45 23 41 66 -9 -26 43 24 32 15 -4 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1419 1414 1398 1393 1365 1285 1192 1139 1146 1204 1302 1420 1568 1718 1847 1951 2058 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.8 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.8 166.7 166.4 166.1 165.7 164.8 164.3 164.5 165.5 167.0 168.8 170.7 172.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 4 4 4 7 8 10 9 9 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 49 49 46 53 44 40 38 34 34 36 35 39 32 31 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 42. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 19. 27. 35. 41. 44. 43. 43. 42. 40. 39. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 166.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.50 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 19.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 9.5% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 3.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 0.5% 10.9% 7.2% 0.4% 0.1% 7.5% 7.7% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0% SDCON: 0.2% 8.9% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% 4.8% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##