* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 71 73 75 76 75 74 72 68 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 61 71 73 75 76 75 74 72 68 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 51 58 62 64 66 66 63 60 56 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 5 7 11 7 12 11 9 6 8 11 12 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 4 3 0 -4 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 60 336 347 18 59 117 87 93 106 93 110 167 191 184 181 182 193 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 153 154 153 153 150 148 150 149 146 146 147 148 149 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 73 73 71 69 68 67 63 62 63 64 64 63 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 43 52 58 60 61 43 40 43 49 62 66 62 58 40 58 200 MB DIV 56 45 47 42 33 70 78 38 65 42 11 -8 6 28 10 19 9 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 2 0 3 2 0 0 -1 3 2 4 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1436 1431 1429 1418 1370 1305 1234 1207 1206 1227 1294 1409 1588 1779 1978 2180 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.2 167.3 167.2 167.0 166.6 165.6 164.8 164.3 164.4 165.1 166.3 168.1 170.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 2 3 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 10 11 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 47 48 49 46 54 49 44 47 43 36 38 39 43 40 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 36. 46. 48. 50. 51. 50. 49. 47. 43. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 167.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.49 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.84 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 24.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 40.2% 17.9% 10.8% 2.1% 4.7% 8.7% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.8% 8.6% 1.3% Consensus: 2.8% 23.4% 12.6% 3.7% 0.8% 9.5% 14.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 15.2% 7.8% 1.8% 0.4% 6.2% 8.5% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##