* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 55 59 62 66 69 69 68 66 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 47 55 59 62 66 69 69 68 66 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 43 47 50 54 57 58 57 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 2 5 14 14 14 14 11 6 4 6 12 10 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 -1 -5 -1 -1 0 0 3 6 1 -2 -1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 80 119 137 65 98 108 124 94 97 64 63 359 293 311 311 299 282 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 151 152 152 150 147 146 146 145 143 147 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 71 73 72 70 68 67 66 63 60 63 61 59 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 41 46 56 66 65 52 42 37 43 46 57 46 38 4 6 200 MB DIV 67 58 45 56 42 81 96 89 53 68 38 -26 4 -17 2 -7 -40 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 1 1 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0 5 5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1432 1432 1436 1435 1408 1342 1273 1199 1159 1146 1201 1308 1492 1704 1927 2139 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.2 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.2 167.4 167.4 167.3 167.1 166.2 165.2 164.5 164.2 164.5 165.5 167.1 169.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 5 4 5 2 4 6 10 12 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 44 44 44 43 48 48 44 40 38 33 33 36 31 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 43. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 30. 34. 37. 41. 44. 44. 43. 41. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 167.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.7% 20.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 27.9% 11.2% 6.4% 0.8% 3.4% 4.3% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.4% Consensus: 1.4% 18.4% 10.0% 2.3% 0.3% 8.2% 8.6% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 11.2% 5.5% 1.1% 0.1% 4.6% 4.8% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##