* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 58 69 77 83 88 85 86 82 79 78 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 58 69 77 83 88 85 86 82 79 78 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 34 41 51 62 73 82 86 86 80 76 73 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 1 5 4 12 9 8 2 1 7 8 10 9 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 109 132 152 129 6 31 97 110 85 75 22 246 234 251 248 245 257 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 153 152 151 150 149 146 143 143 144 148 146 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 70 71 72 71 69 66 63 61 58 59 60 59 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 16 17 19 18 21 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 40 41 45 62 67 66 57 48 46 43 52 53 32 11 -5 200 MB DIV 67 72 61 38 50 70 80 132 94 101 85 39 17 15 -1 -7 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 2 2 0 6 3 11 6 3 LAND (KM) 1434 1415 1427 1427 1431 1428 1399 1338 1258 1210 1199 1229 1343 1528 1749 1983 2235 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.7 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.9 167.1 167.3 167.3 167.2 166.6 165.8 165.1 164.9 165.2 166.3 167.9 170.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 1 2 4 4 3 3 5 7 11 13 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 44 44 44 45 45 49 47 45 38 32 33 31 33 36 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 15. 17. 15. 16. 14. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 33. 44. 52. 58. 63. 60. 61. 57. 54. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 166.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.46 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.16 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 22.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 11.8% 3.7% 1.9% 0.3% 3.5% 7.8% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% Consensus: 0.4% 12.9% 7.8% 0.8% 0.2% 8.3% 10.3% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##