* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 44 55 68 80 87 91 95 94 91 87 82 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 44 55 68 80 87 91 95 94 91 87 82 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 44 55 70 84 93 96 94 89 84 77 71 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 4 3 7 9 7 11 6 4 5 6 11 16 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 2 0 -2 -6 -5 -2 2 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 94 103 96 94 59 28 64 90 86 106 86 142 266 252 267 257 279 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 152 154 154 153 152 147 144 142 140 144 147 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 75 74 76 76 71 68 65 63 58 55 57 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 10 13 15 17 19 20 20 20 21 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 38 37 38 55 63 65 62 44 43 48 44 40 9 -11 -34 200 MB DIV 74 68 66 67 53 55 104 123 123 115 122 96 -9 -2 0 -32 -33 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 3 1 0 2 3 4 4 5 9 10 2 0 LAND (KM) 1487 1483 1479 1494 1489 1482 1460 1388 1278 1168 1087 1054 1075 1174 1357 1567 1774 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.8 10.1 10.9 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.8 167.1 167.2 167.3 167.2 166.7 165.8 164.9 164.3 164.2 164.7 165.9 167.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 5 4 4 6 5 7 9 13 14 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 45 44 45 46 44 47 48 41 32 32 26 31 27 21 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 43. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 30. 43. 55. 62. 66. 70. 69. 66. 62. 57. 53. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 166.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.47 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% 43.7% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 55.1% 27.4% 19.3% 4.7% 25.6% 38.1% 29.3% Bayesian: 3.3% 34.9% 22.1% 8.4% 0.9% 21.8% 25.0% 8.0% Consensus: 4.1% 40.1% 23.2% 9.2% 1.9% 23.7% 35.6% 12.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 25.0% 14.1% 5.1% 1.4% 13.3% 19.3% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##