* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 53 67 77 87 91 92 87 83 81 79 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 40 53 67 77 87 91 92 87 83 81 79 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 35 43 52 63 74 83 85 81 76 70 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 11 8 11 13 8 5 4 2 6 14 13 20 29 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 1 -2 -3 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 106 87 87 83 56 41 61 68 73 56 345 224 218 238 244 240 237 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 153 155 156 155 152 149 143 141 140 143 145 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 78 78 78 77 73 69 67 65 63 59 62 63 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 9 13 16 17 20 20 21 19 20 21 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 62 50 45 42 35 36 56 58 60 47 36 43 43 44 35 15 1 200 MB DIV 93 90 101 106 84 54 73 118 145 94 96 92 40 17 28 20 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 4 3 6 3 10 15 19 14 LAND (KM) 1517 1547 1557 1557 1567 1552 1511 1407 1265 1137 1028 941 960 1076 1240 1438 1637 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.6 10.6 11.9 13.2 14.7 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.6 167.0 167.2 167.2 167.2 166.7 165.8 164.6 163.8 163.5 163.8 165.1 167.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 0 1 3 5 7 6 7 8 11 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 44 44 43 45 44 48 45 40 29 28 25 29 23 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 44. 44. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 13. 18. 17. 17. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 15. 28. 42. 52. 62. 66. 67. 62. 58. 56. 54. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 166.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.45 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 19.3% 6.4% 3.5% 1.0% 6.8% 10.9% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 14.5% Consensus: 0.5% 13.1% 7.5% 1.2% 0.4% 9.0% 10.5% 10.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##