* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 44 59 71 80 88 89 87 81 77 75 71 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 44 59 71 80 88 89 87 81 77 75 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 36 45 56 68 77 79 76 73 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 17 17 12 8 11 12 7 6 4 4 9 16 16 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 3 0 -3 -4 -2 0 1 -1 2 0 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 107 101 87 84 77 33 52 64 83 46 65 310 216 235 229 243 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 153 154 156 155 153 151 145 142 139 141 143 146 147 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 76 78 78 78 75 70 68 66 63 60 60 64 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 11 15 16 19 20 21 20 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 50 45 41 32 46 57 54 55 40 40 42 39 46 22 10 200 MB DIV 98 95 91 102 107 63 61 101 153 108 91 107 68 -10 29 23 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 0 0 2 4 4 3 9 10 17 13 LAND (KM) 1513 1542 1557 1567 1577 1572 1539 1461 1330 1186 1069 968 927 1003 1144 1338 1540 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 10.0 11.2 12.7 14.0 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.3 166.7 167.0 167.2 167.2 166.9 166.2 165.0 164.0 163.4 163.5 164.3 166.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 1 1 3 5 6 7 7 7 9 12 13 13 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 44 43 43 44 44 48 46 43 33 29 23 24 25 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 42. 45. 48. 49. 49. 49. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 12. 16. 18. 17. 15. 13. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 24. 39. 51. 60. 68. 69. 67. 61. 57. 55. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 166.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 4.0% 13.5% 21.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.1% Consensus: 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 4.6% 9.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.8% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##