* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 55 59 61 63 64 62 58 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 55 59 61 63 64 62 58 52 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 35 41 46 49 51 50 47 41 34 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 9 11 12 12 15 19 19 10 10 16 25 42 55 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 11 7 -1 9 5 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 132 139 132 125 111 117 97 89 82 66 46 319 293 265 262 268 266 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 151 154 156 157 158 157 151 141 139 139 135 133 124 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 69 70 71 70 70 71 69 72 71 66 64 65 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 79 78 76 73 68 64 61 57 52 49 56 48 27 9 -3 -21 200 MB DIV 75 90 96 97 100 138 95 133 154 110 95 70 47 42 19 14 22 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 1 0 1 15 17 17 33 30 17 11 LAND (KM) 1449 1490 1522 1570 1598 1672 1689 1657 1547 1298 1014 808 603 488 522 622 711 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.6 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.8 9.0 10.3 12.4 14.6 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.0 167.9 168.6 169.2 169.5 169.8 169.2 167.8 165.9 163.9 162.4 161.9 162.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 5 3 4 6 9 11 13 12 11 14 13 12 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 45 40 39 40 39 42 42 49 40 23 18 16 11 7 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 8. 17. 26. 34. 41. 46. 49. 51. 52. 51. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 35. 39. 41. 43. 44. 42. 38. 32. 26. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 167.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 28.4% 10.6% 7.3% 3.1% 7.0% 13.0% 16.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.5% 0.9% 7.2% Consensus: 1.2% 10.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.8% 4.6% 7.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 21.0% SDCON: 0.6% 6.8% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 1.9% 3.3% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##