* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 45 54 60 62 63 66 67 66 63 58 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 45 54 60 62 63 66 67 66 63 58 53 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 35 40 46 49 50 51 50 48 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 8 7 12 11 12 23 24 26 15 14 4 12 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 8 8 12 13 14 4 SHEAR DIR 179 147 137 129 109 120 103 95 81 83 58 60 49 69 260 241 252 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 152 151 152 154 158 159 158 158 155 146 139 136 134 125 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 66 67 68 68 69 68 68 68 71 73 71 67 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 73 83 79 79 73 62 56 58 47 28 52 41 45 38 19 3 200 MB DIV 62 75 87 77 69 122 98 100 119 148 105 122 65 20 26 28 7 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 2 6 11 11 20 23 11 LAND (KM) 1413 1472 1522 1565 1615 1698 1767 1784 1757 1635 1402 1130 891 725 502 264 151 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.3 9.5 8.8 8.1 8.3 9.4 11.2 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.3 167.6 168.6 169.4 170.0 170.7 170.7 170.0 168.4 166.3 164.3 162.6 161.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 7 10 11 12 12 10 11 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 47 45 40 42 35 33 40 41 42 48 51 32 22 13 14 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 27. 35. 42. 47. 52. 55. 56. 56. 55. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -9. -14. -16. -16. -13. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 25. 34. 40. 42. 43. 46. 47. 46. 43. 38. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 166.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 50.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.46 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 41.7% 21.9% 12.8% 6.1% 7.9% 13.3% 18.4% Bayesian: 4.2% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 4.1% 8.2% Consensus: 4.2% 15.3% 7.6% 4.3% 2.0% 2.9% 5.8% 8.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##