* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/11/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 21 21 20 21 23 27 31 35 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 21 21 20 21 23 27 31 35 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 18 19 22 21 14 11 8 7 5 6 5 7 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 2 4 0 -3 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 235 255 254 245 246 257 238 236 228 252 207 198 173 180 165 232 258 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 152 151 144 144 143 143 147 150 151 150 151 152 152 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 53 55 58 63 64 62 60 60 60 59 58 53 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 21 20 28 24 38 50 50 50 46 42 34 22 14 9 11 200 MB DIV 18 24 35 36 45 45 99 72 58 21 29 39 23 23 18 -28 -57 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 0 0 4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 716 743 808 890 995 1147 1240 1353 1449 1542 1594 1627 1630 1612 1609 1650 1734 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.5 11.9 11.1 10.4 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.6 159.0 160.4 161.9 164.7 167.0 168.7 169.8 170.4 170.2 169.8 169.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 13 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 0 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 42 41 42 41 34 36 33 35 34 35 37 40 39 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 45. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 2. 6. 10. 13. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 156.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/11/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.40 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.80 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/11/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##