* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/10/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 22 22 21 21 20 18 18 21 26 30 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 22 22 21 21 20 18 18 21 26 30 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 15 17 19 24 23 14 17 13 12 12 15 14 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 204 199 222 242 253 255 251 249 230 212 216 191 172 146 106 86 79 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 151 152 153 151 148 141 140 143 147 151 155 156 155 155 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 55 54 55 56 59 63 64 64 65 64 62 62 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 24 21 20 21 18 33 40 51 46 64 63 61 61 68 43 200 MB DIV 16 23 21 28 31 38 53 87 72 63 44 57 54 83 83 91 63 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 777 733 707 727 764 914 1075 1160 1228 1287 1366 1428 1483 1530 1577 1594 1571 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 12.9 12.3 11.6 10.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.8 153.7 154.9 156.2 157.6 160.5 163.1 165.4 167.1 168.0 168.4 168.4 168.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 14 14 12 10 6 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 33 36 34 42 38 36 32 33 37 42 46 44 43 42 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 329 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -14. -11. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. 1. 5. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 152.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -2.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##