* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/10/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 32 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 47 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 32 35 36 37 38 40 42 45 47 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 12 14 14 16 18 16 8 10 9 11 14 18 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 -4 -12 SHEAR DIR 175 190 211 209 225 252 252 251 238 210 163 175 142 132 116 108 104 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 150 152 154 154 153 149 146 144 145 149 151 155 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 55 56 57 60 63 66 64 63 63 61 58 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 4 11 14 14 12 26 45 52 46 44 44 36 36 23 8 200 MB DIV 30 36 23 15 33 41 29 38 88 64 79 43 53 44 60 49 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -1 -1 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 903 845 798 792 821 946 1123 1286 1378 1480 1559 1646 1712 1769 1802 1853 1899 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.6 11.0 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.9 154.1 155.4 156.7 159.6 162.5 165.3 167.6 169.3 170.3 170.8 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 14 13 9 7 4 3 4 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 32 35 36 45 46 45 42 36 36 35 36 34 36 42 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 29. 35. 40. 42. 45. 47. 49. 50. 51. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -12. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 151.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.18 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.2% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.5% 9.0% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.8% 6.3% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 5.5% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 3.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##