* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/10/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 39 44 47 47 48 50 55 57 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 39 44 47 47 48 50 55 57 58 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 22 23 26 29 34 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 10 9 9 11 12 12 11 7 5 1 3 7 12 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -5 -2 -2 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 115 173 199 218 219 258 254 232 221 209 168 216 87 135 121 116 107 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 151 151 150 154 155 156 152 149 146 147 148 150 152 153 155 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 56 56 59 61 62 62 65 66 66 64 64 61 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 3 4 11 7 21 29 40 55 49 47 37 36 29 30 17 200 MB DIV 17 27 33 44 53 52 43 70 61 71 68 43 57 69 51 37 21 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1012 938 888 857 848 937 1091 1264 1363 1446 1525 1594 1645 1692 1738 1784 1843 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.3 10.8 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.5 151.5 152.6 153.9 155.2 158.0 161.1 163.9 166.3 168.1 169.2 169.7 169.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 7 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 35 35 32 38 46 48 43 42 38 35 34 34 36 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 21. 30. 36. 41. 44. 46. 49. 50. 51. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 22. 23. 25. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 150.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 25.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 30.6% 13.2% 10.4% 3.5% 3.4% 0.9% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 18.8% 10.6% 3.5% 1.2% 8.6% 8.8% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/10/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##