* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP902026 07/09/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 49 53 53 52 52 50 49 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 49 53 53 52 52 50 49 49 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 33 33 32 32 32 31 31 29 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 8 12 11 13 10 11 9 14 16 19 18 17 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 1 -1 -2 -5 -5 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 201 260 212 203 211 219 246 221 232 252 278 287 260 265 253 244 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 149 152 150 154 156 157 155 150 147 147 146 146 147 149 148 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 58 59 60 60 60 59 60 63 61 59 58 57 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 5 1 4 17 21 36 52 59 51 46 34 24 28 19 8 200 MB DIV 35 16 21 44 61 69 89 69 75 45 36 15 3 -1 -4 -10 -35 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -4 -6 -6 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1119 1031 948 880 856 902 1065 1280 1424 1563 1697 1808 1889 1950 2006 2060 2133 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.3 150.5 151.7 153.1 154.5 157.5 160.8 164.0 166.9 169.5 171.6 173.3 174.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 15 13 12 9 8 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 33 35 31 35 50 49 43 36 38 41 40 46 43 49 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 21. 31. 38. 43. 47. 50. 52. 53. 53. 53. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 24. 28. 28. 27. 27. 25. 24. 24. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 149.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902026 INVEST 07/09/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.9% 25.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 23.7% 10.1% 6.2% 1.3% 2.4% 2.6% 12.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 20.9% 4.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 0.7% Consensus: 3.0% 21.9% 10.5% 2.4% 0.6% 8.4% 9.9% 4.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902026 INVEST 07/09/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##