* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLANA CP032026 10/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 31 29 27 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 31 29 27 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 20 18 21 26 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 17 15 13 9 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 218 225 211 201 211 227 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 153 152 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 59 56 54 54 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 97 104 111 112 104 100 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 44 -4 12 0 -3 35 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1912 1874 1837 1784 1733 1624 1522 1374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.4 15.2 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.9 176.4 175.9 175.2 174.5 173.5 172.9 171.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 6 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 53 52 50 53 51 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -13. -15. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 176.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032026 OLANA 10/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.55 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032026 OLANA 10/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##