* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLANA CP032026 10/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 28 26 22 19 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 28 26 22 19 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 32 29 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 19 17 18 27 24 33 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 20 17 16 13 7 1 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 214 219 228 216 216 217 229 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 152 153 153 150 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 57 53 55 58 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 13 13 12 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 76 90 97 106 108 91 111 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 16 28 -1 1 5 -1 76 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1980 1929 1879 1854 1830 1724 1567 1447 1341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.6 15.4 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.6 177.0 176.4 176.0 175.6 174.4 173.0 172.2 171.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 55 54 53 52 52 50 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -16. -16. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 177.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032026 OLANA 10/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 60.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.56 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.44 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032026 OLANA 10/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##